The TV Debate

I was at a branch meeting in Dublin South-Central last night, continuing the campaign trail.  In advance of the meeting, Michael had given the NEC candidates who would be attending a heads-up on a question he intended asking us.  When he mentioned the question to me, I immediately had an answer formed in my head.  However, once I sat down and thought about it a bit more, the answer began to expand.  Michael didn’t get to ask his question last night, which meant I didn’t get to give my newly extended answer.  I though I’d post the question and answer here (since I have an answer prepared, I might as well use it somewhere!):

Michael’s Question:

One of the most disappointing facets of the last election, was Pat Rabbitte’s absence from the Leaders’ Debate.  What do you think the Labour Party can do in advance of the next election to ensure that Eamon Gilmore sits alongside the leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael during the Leaders’ Debate?

My Answer:

When talking about the TV debate, there are three questions to which we need to analyse.  Firstly, we need to look at why Labour was absent from the Big Debate in May of this year.  Secondly, we need to examine exactly what the Leaders’ Debate is.  And thirdly, we need to look at how we can ensure that we get to participate in that debate in future.

Why did it happen?

Labour, due to the Mullingar Accord, had made ourselves subservient to Fine Gael int he run-up to General Election 2007.  Our policies had appeared on Fine Gael posters all around the country, and many of our braver policies has disappeared from view completely.  All ambition within the Labour Party seemed to have been reduced to a desire to see Pat Rabbitte as Tánaiste to Enda Kenny as Taoiseach, and the country was focussed on a presidential-style choice between Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny as potential taoisigh.

For some time prior to the election, Labour had been polling at or under 15% – hardly the polling figures of a party challenging to be the largest in the country.

Local polling was not promising for us as a party, and our future seemed to sit on a knife-edge, as a loss or gain of up to 6 seats seemed equally possible when individual constituencies were analysed.

The previous few years had seen Labour make minor gains in the local elections, had seen a very disappointing European election campaign for the party, and had seen us duck out of a potential bid for the Presidency.

Now, in light of all the above, one has to wonder.  If I were the Director General of RTÉ, would I have considered allowing Pat Rabbitte into the Leaders’ Debate?  Quite honestly, the answer is no.  Pat Rabbitte was leader of a party that was helping prop up Fine Gael, that was polling terribly, that had failed to set the world alight in Local and European Elections in 2004, and that had avoided the opportunity to create real political debate in the country by nominating Michael D. Higgins as a candidate for Presidency.  There’s no way any responsible Director General would want to include the leader of such a party in the largest debate in the run-up to the election.

What is the Leaders’ Debate, and what does it mean to the Labour party to be involved?

The Leaders’ Debate has the largest viewing figures of any political programme in the election period.  Record numbers tuned in this time to see one of the blandest debates in history, and as Ireland adopts a Presidential style politics in our General Elections, these viewing figures seem likely to increase in future

However, despite the high viewing figures, the impact of the debate on voting patterns is still unclear.  It is apparent that most people have decided their voting intentions at this point, and perhaps the Leaders’ debate serves only to reinforce previously held intentions.  Nevertheless, with such high viewing figures, there is undoubtedly a portion of swing votes up for grabs.

Participation in the Leaders’ Debate would remove Labour from being associated with the smaller parties constantly, and would recognise that while we are smaller than FF and FG at present, there is an enormous gulf between a party of our size, and parties such as the Greens or PDs.

But there’s one answer that really resonates with me when asked what the Leaders’ Debate represents to Labour – the Leaders’ Debate is a target for us.  Like Eamon Gilmore’s ambition to gain over 30 Dáil seats at the next General Election, or the target of at least 150 local seats which I outlined in a previous blog post, it is a benchmark on which we can judge the successes or failures of the party.  As such, it’s probably a pretty good benchmark to show where we are in relation to our ambitions of growing to become a party larger than FF or FG.

How do we reach that target?  How do we ensure that Eamon Gilmore participates in the Leaders’ Debate in the run-up to the next General Election?

The way to acheive a large target such as this, is to set in place a series of smaller goals which cumulatively will lead us towards that target and beyond.  And so I have 7 goals that I think Labour should focus on in the coming years:

1. Restore an independent identity to the Labour Party.  Eamon Gilmore has made the first step by declaring that we will not engage in pre-election pacts.  But we need to go further – our policies must be clearer, and more accessible to people.  I won’t propose what all of those policies should be, but there are several discussion documents being produced at the moment, which I hope will guide us in this direction.

2. Select our candidates for the Local Elections by March next year,  and ensure early selection of General Election candidates as soon as the Local Elections are out of the way.  This way, we will give the best possible run-in time to all of our candidates.

3. Put in place additional support and mentoring structures for candidates.  I firmly believe we need more staff employed in Head Office providing mentoring and assistance to candidates – particularly first-time candidates.  I believe we should employ a full-time fundraiser, or at least tap into the expertise in this area which exists within the party membership.  This fundraiser should be used to substantially increase the fundraising done by the national party, and also to provide assistance and guidance to constituencies and branches who are attempting to organise their own fundraising efforts.  Mentoring staff, and an increase in the number of organisers employed by the party are also votal to ensuring that we have well-prepared candidates and local organisations in advance of Local and General Elections.

4. Build the membership to a minimum of 15,000 members within 2 years.  Fianna Fáil are well known for getting people to recruit their entire families and villages!  We tend to be the opposite, and often shy away from asking people to join the party.  We need a change in attitude, and a major push to recruit more members into the party in all areas.

5. Set an ambitious but acheivable target for the Local Elections.  I’ve floated the number of 150 councillors as a target for the 2009 Local Elections.  Maybe we should target 200, or 175, or 140.  In many ways, the number is irrelevant.  We need to analyse each Local Electoral Area in the country, and try to identify key targets all over the country.  Setting such a target, and acheiving that target, would be a big milestone for us.

6. Set a target for European Elections 2009.  The decision by the Constituency Commission yesterday to have four 3-seat constituencies in Ireland for the European Elections, is a strange one worthy of further debate in a separate post.  But whether we like that outcome or not, we now need to analyse our targets for the European Elections.  Whether Proinsias DeRossa runs again or not, a Labour seat in Dublin should remain secure provided we run a good campaign.  The East constituency (formerly Leinster) almost provided us with an MEP last time out, and needs to be our primary target for gaining a seat.  South (formerly Munster) needs a strong candidate, but with 5 TDs and 3 Senators in the Munster area, a strong candidate and a good campaign could conceivably gain us another seat here.  North-West (formerly Connacht-Ulster) is definitely a weak area for us.  I believe we should use the European Elections as an opportunity to provide a high-profile boost to two candidates in the region who will be seeking election at the following General Election.  For example, putting Hughie Baxter and Siobhan McLaughlin on our ticket, could give the Labour profile in Roscommon and Donegal a massive boost in the run-up to the following General Election.

7. Run a candidate for President.  In 2011, there will be a presidential election.  Labour must not make the same mistake we did in 2004 by backing down from a potential presidential bid.  In 1992, the platform for the Spring-tide had been boosted massively by the election of Mary Robinson in 1990.  We need to identify a willing and capable candidate for the 2011 presidential election as soon as possible, and prepare ourselves for a campaign that will do much to boost the profile of the party 12 months out from a General Election.

This list is not intended to be exhaustive, but if we want to acheive the target of participation in the Leaders’ Debate prior to the next General Election, I believe the above 7 goals represent a framework within which we can acheive this target.