I spent the weekend attending SDLP Conference in the Armagh City Hotel. This was my second full SDLP Conference, and I thoroughly enjoyed myself. Attending political conferences as a visitor is a terrific experience – it’s like a proper conference, without any of the responsibility! Rather predictably, given the recent moves by Fianna Fáil, there was a good deal of tension within the Conference regarding the future of the party, with a closed session scheduled for Sunday morning to discuss motions proposing a breaking of links with New Labour, criticism of Irish Labour for the Seanad deal with Sinn Féin, and a proposal to immediately begin negotiations with Fianna Fáil about a merger.
Fortunately, none of these motions passed, and instead the Conference overwhelmingly voted to set up a review group to consider their options – a wise move in my mind. I believe the SDLP are best served currently by remaining an independent party, and overhauling their organisational structures prior to considering any possible merger in the future. I also believe that any move to merge with either Fianna Fáil or Labour would result in the resignation of swathes of SDLP members, leaving moderate nationalists considerably weaker than the sum of their parts have been.
While the weekend involved a lot of soul-searching for SDLP, it also provided enormous food for thought for Labour members in attendance. It is clear that a new political dispensation has been established in the North, and within the next few years, we may well see a United Ireland. In that context, we must begin to consider whether the existing political cleavages (Nationalist vs. Unionist in the North, Civil War divisions in the South) are likely to remain, or if the removal of the border is likely to stimulate a new political cleavage in Irish politics. For example, would abolition of the border result in a cleavage between hard-line Nationalists (Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin) against more moderate elements (Labour, SDLP, Fine Gael, UUP), or might we actually see a right-left cleavage in Irish politics (Fianna Fáil, UUP, DUP, Fine Gael against Labour, Greens, SDLP, SF)?
To look briefly at what situation might emerge, I think it’s helpful to draw a picture of some likely events. As reunification would require constitutional amendment anyway, I would imagine the opportunity will be taken to extend the number of TDs in Dáil Éireann. The current population of 4,234,925 are represented by 166 TDs, so extending the level of representation to the North would leave a new total of 232 (25,512 population per seat, current NI population 1,685,000 as of the Census on 2001). Using the current levels of representation to the Assembly, and applying these to the 66 new Dáil seats (not unreasonable given the same PR-STV system is in use, though the larger parties could probably expect a little seat bonus due to reduced constituency size), would make a new Dáil consisting of:
Fianna Fáil – 78
Fine Gael – 51
DUP – 22
Sinn Féin – 21 (17 North & 4 existing)
Labour – 20
UUP – 11
SDLP – 10
Green – 7 (1 North & 6 existing)
Alliance – 4
PD – 2
PUP – 1
Independents – 5
Now, suddenly 116 votes would be required to elect a Taoiseach. A grand nationalist coalition of FF, SF and SDLP would only have 109. A grand left coalition of SF, Labour, SDLP, Green and PUP would only have 59, though that figure would jump to 110 if FG were brought into the arrangement. A Christian democratic coalition of FG, DUP, UUP would have 84, still a long way short. Now, while this has been a fun exercise, it’s far from accurate, as there will almost certainly be mergers in such a situation, as well as a new election which would change the numbers.
The point though, is to show that it remains unclear what the new political cleavage will be, with none of the options I’ve outlined above having the numbers for a majority Government. It is in this context that we must consider our relationship with the SDLP. It is unfair for us to criticise them everytime they take a policy stance that differs slightly from our view of things. Equally, it is unfair for their members to criticise us for a Seanad voting pact which we used to maximise our numbers in the Oireachtas. I still support the desire of Northern Ireland Labour Forum to contest Local Elections in the North, as I believe we can help increase the left-wing vote in the North, that we can attract a vote which SDLP may not attract, and we can increase the level of co-operation between our parties. I think it is absolutely proper that both ourselves and SDLP establish working groups/commissions to investigate all potential ramifications of us contesting Local Elections or of us looking to strengthen our links with SDLP. Political decisions which have the potential to radically alter the face of Irish politics in coming years should not be made lightly, but nor should we be afraid of making them. I applaud the SDLP decision not to give in to pressure for a merger, but to take time to consider their position carefully. I look forward to applauding a decision of the Labour Conference to consider organising and contesting in the North. I don’t believe these decisions contradict each other in any way, or that they should negatively affect the relationships between our parties.
The new political dispensation leaves an exciting, unclear future before us. It’s time we started thinking about how we can win in that new dispensation.
